47% Obama, 47% Romney, 100% Worthless

A poll released this morning for the presidential election  in November shows that President Obama and Governor Romney are tied at 47%. And it’s a ridiculous waste of time to give this poll any notice, much less to write anything about it. So here goes.

Presidential elections aren’t decided by the popular vote. 47% of the people surveyed in a poll, probably over the telephone, aren’t indicative of anything. Each person in the 47% lives in one state or another, and those people’s opinions mean nothing at all. Their votes are important in November, if they even go out to vote, but there’s no indication they will. A “likely voter” relies on the word of the person being surveyed, and taking a few minutes to answer questions on the telephone isn’t the same as showing up at the ballot box in November.

But getting back to the states for a moment, the places where each of these 47% live matters a lot. If Obama’s 47% includes more people in Pennsylvania, and Romney’s 47% includes more in Ohio, then it’s advantage Obama because Pennsylvania has  20 Electoral votes and Ohio has 18.  But neither state alone has enough Electoral votes to determine anything by itself, either.

This election will be 47% to 47%, give or take a couple of points either way, from now until November. Why? Because the media has a vested interest in this state of affairs. A close, it-could-go-either-way election means that the pundits and commentators they have hired are a good investment. And it means money will come pouring in to the campaigns and PACs, who will then turn around and buy ads in every place they can think of. It’s a profit deal, as Steve Martin figured out in The Jerk, and the more interested the media can keep the American public over the summer and into the fall, the more money they stand to make.

Please keep these things in mind over the coming four months. And as long as you go out to the polls in November and vote for the candidate of your choice–whoever that is–then a poll taken in July really means nothing at all.

One thought on “47% Obama, 47% Romney, 100% Worthless

  1. Presidential elections don’t have to be this way.

    The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).

    Every vote, everywhere, would be politically relevant and equal in presidential elections. No more distorting and divisive red and blue state maps. There would no longer be a handful of ‘battleground’ states where voters and policies are more important than those of the voters in more than 3/4ths of the states that now are just ‘spectators’ and ignored after the primaries.

    When the bill is enacted by states possessing a majority of the electoral votes– enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538), all the electoral votes from the enacting states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states and DC.

    The bill uses the power given to each state by the Founding Fathers in the Constitution to change how they award their electoral votes for President. Historically, virtually all of the major changes in the method of electing the President, including ending the requirement that only men who owned substantial property could vote and 48 current state-by-state winner-take-all laws, have come about by state legislative action.

    In Gallup polls since 1944, only about 20% of the public has supported the current system of awarding all of a state’s electoral votes to the presidential candidate who receives the most votes in each separate state (with about 70% opposed and about 10% undecided). Support for a national popular vote is strong among Republicans, Democrats, and Independent voters, as well as every demographic group in virtually every state surveyed in recent polls in closely divided Battleground states: CO – 68%, FL – 78%, IA 75%, MI – 73%, MO – 70%, NH – 69%, NV – 72%, NM– 76%, NC – 74%, OH – 70%, PA – 78%, VA – 74%, and WI – 71%; in Small states (3 to 5 electoral votes): AK – 70%, DC – 76%, DE – 75%, ID – 77%, ME – 77%, MT – 72%, NE 74%, NH – 69%, NV – 72%, NM – 76%, OK – 81%, RI – 74%, SD – 71%, UT – 70%, VT – 75%, WV – 81%, and WY – 69%; in Southern and Border states: AR – 80%,, KY- 80%, MS – 77%, MO – 70%, NC – 74%, OK – 81%, SC – 71%, TN – 83%, VA – 74%, and WV – 81%; and in other states polled: AZ – 67%, CA – 70%, CT – 74%, MA – 73%, MN – 75%, NY – 79%, OR – 76%, and WA – 77%. Americans believe that the candidate who receives the most votes should win.

    The bill has passed 31 state legislative chambers in 21 states. The bill has been enacted by 9 jurisdictions possessing 132 electoral votes – 49% of the 270 necessary to go into effect.

    Follow National Popular Vote on Facebook via NationalPopularVoteInc

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